Is America Running Out of Gas?

October 29, 2003 

Oakaland, CA

An evening of in-depth information from leading experts on the geopolitical and economic impacts of America’s growing addiction to imported energy resources

How will North America deal with looming natural gas shortages?

What happened to “cheap” Iraqi oil? Have financial elites turned against the Bush administration?

Are more resource wars being planned?

Mike Ruppert (investigative journalist,

Richar Heinberg (author of the The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies)

Julian Darley (journalist, co-founder of Post Carbon Institute, expert on the emerging North American natural gas crisis)

Sponsored by Post Carbon Institute

Richard Heinberg


“The Party’s Over”  book

Universal Ecological Dilema

Expand area of resource expansion (takeover, scope enlargement);

New types of energy/fuel/food (tool use, specialization, drawdown); or Die Off !!!

US Production Peak 1970

CIA documents show extensive foreknowledge of Russian peak of oil production;

Peak oil used as weapon to destabilize USSR;

Afgan War; Saudi flood of cheap Oil; 

The importance of dollar hegemony;

$5-600 Billion /yr trade deficit;

Plummeting value of Dollar may lead to economic meltdown;

(very likely to precipitate global meltdown; hundreds of trillions of

dollars within derivatives trading bubble could pop at any time)

World Discovery of Oil peaked in 1960’s

 Renewable resources account for 7% of US consumption;

2% of that 7% supplied by solar and wind

World Oil Production Peak in 5 – 10 years

North America: 1983

South & Central America: 2006

Former Soviet Union: 1987

Middle East: 2009

Africa – 2006

Asia Pacific - 2004

WORLD PEAK – 2006    

              The Party’s Over p 103 - 4    

Full blown hydrogen energy regime only by 2020 – 2030

Supply side solutions are only temporary

Demand side solutions are only effective way to amelieorate crisis: use less

Reduce population

Post Petroleum Carrying Capacity of Earth 1.5 – 1.7 billion people

Starvation, Disease, Warfare 

It’s time for humans to prove that we’re an intelligent lifeform.

 Julian Darley


“High Noon for Natural Gas”  book

Global natural gas peak in 10 – 15 years 

“The typical natural gas well production profile rises from zero, plateaus for some time, and then drops off sharply. 

However, in aggregate, combining all the natural gas wells in a country or large geographic region, extraction does

follow a modified Hubbert curve, with the right-hand side of the curve being somewhat steeper than that for crude.”

              The Party’s Over p. 129

Blackouts already occurring globally in many countries

US consumes about 50 – 60 billion cubic feet day!!  About 22 tcf per year;

World gas reserves estimated between 300 to 1,400 tcf (trillion cubic feet);

US gas reserves estimated about 177.4 tcf by ever-optimistic EIA in 2001 (less than 50 yrs)

Natural Gas provides ¼ of US energy consumption

Correlation of discovery and extraction curves (extraction right shifted)

Discovery peak in 1950; Extraction peak in 1970;

Presently set to decline precipitously

US/California energy strategy “Let the drill bit rip”

Main post natural gas and oil alternatives are coal and nuclear;

Each present host of environmental problems, and cannot be used for food or plastics.

Michael C. Ruppert


“The uh, I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating. But unfortunately the world has no Plan B if I'm right. The facts are too serious to ignore. Sadly the pessimist-optimist debate started too late. The Club of Rome humanists were right to raise the 'Limits to Growth' issues in the late 1960's. When they raised these issues they were actually talking about a time frame of 2050 to 2070. Then time was on the side of preparing Plan B. They like Dr. Hubbert got to be seen as Chicken Little or the Boy Who Cried Wolf... “

              – Investment Banker Matthew Simmons

[Matthew Simmons has been a key advisor to the Bush Administration, Vice President Cheney's 2001 Energy Task Force and the Council on Foreign Relations. An energy investment banker, Simmons is the CEO of Simmons and Co. International, handling an investment portfolio of approximately $56 billion. He has served previously on the faculty of Harvard Business School. Among Peak Oil researchers he is known for two seemingly contradictory things: being a staunch supporter of George W. Bush and his policies and probably the only outspoken insider to talk openly about Peak Oil. - MCR]

The first 5 years after 911 to determine next 500 years;

US Gov had advanced and complete knowledge of attacks of 9/11 and allowed it to happen!!

Insider trading

Airforce stand down

Russian document concerning envoy which relayed specific intelligence warnings to CIA pre 9/11 !!!

Documented penetration of Al Qeida by many national intelligence agencies

Over 1 ½  hour delay in Airforce response !!!

Flight 93 was shot down. One engine found over a mile away from crash !!!

A number of major intelligence agencies knew advanced details of impending attacks and proceeded to warn the US intelligence agency


Dave Frasca  ‘Radical Fundamentalist Unit’ US GOV;

Frasca thwarted just about every attempt of FBI agents to investigate Saudi/Bin laden activity in US;

Receives post 911 promotion

The Grand ChessboardZbigniew Brzezinski, 1997

Map of where the next world conflict will be: Afganistan, Central Asia, and Middle East.

Several quotes stress the need to convince the public that there exists a widely perceived direct external threat on the order of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (“imperial mobilization of the masses”) in order to gain enough support to go ahead with planned escalation of US military presence/activity abroad. (Z. Big is ex-national security advisor to Carter, co-founder of Trilateral Commision with Rockefeller, and architect of the Afgan trap, i.e. the founder of Islamic fundamentalist movement)) 

“The evidence of Peak Oil is 911.”  MCR

“20 out of 25 holes sunk in the Caspian Sea have resulted in dry holes.” Mathew Simmons

“In the early nineties the Caspian seemed to be the next Middle East. In 2001 we had 20 out of 25 dry holes that dampened the enthusiasm for the Caspian significantly. In 2001 Kashagan was finally discovered, deemed to be the

greatest field in the decade. In 2002 BP and Stat Oil quietly sold their 14% of Kashagan for 800 million dollars. In 2003 British Gas put their 17% on the block for 1.2 billion dollars. Which raises, in my opinion, the question, what do these original parties know about the world's greatest field or do they merely want to spread the wealth? I think what this all means is that non-OPEC oil, particularly outside the Soviet Union, is either peaking as we speak, or has already peaked.”  Mathew Simmons, at the second international conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 5/27/03

Caspian estimate reserves expectations have dropped from 250 – 300 billion barrels in the 95-6’s to 100 around 2001, and now have dropped to around 40 billion barrels

World presently consumes 1 billion barrels in 11 ½ days !!!

Oil companies are downsizing and merging;

More evidence for Peak Oil

“Chevron bought Texaco. Exxon bought Mobil. TotalFinaElf bought Arco. Now, one of the largest oil buyouts in history has been announced in Russia as Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Yukos has just acquired Sibneft creating the fourth largest oil company in the world. This, even as Chevron, Shell and Exxon have been reportedly frantically trying to acquire a 40% stake in YukosSibneft. As of this writing, Exxon appears to have emerged the winner as the Russian government announced on October 7th that it found no reason to block Exxon's purchase.”

BP invested 67 billion dollars in Russia’s 2nd largest oil company

Exxon wins major bid to buy 40% of Russian largest oil company YukosSibneft; Mikhail Khodorkovsky, President of YukosSibneft is arrested by Putin; Roughly 40% of shares in YukosSibneft are seized by Russian authorities;

Following resignation of Khodorkovsky, YukosSibneft appoints a new American-dominated management team ????

Russia to switch to euros for the purchase of oil (US companies trying cash in both sides of money market as dollar delcines)

“An announcement in Reuters on October 8th that Russia may soon price its oil in Euros explains the additional incentive for American companies to own a piece of the Russian pie. Such a move would drastically weaken the dollar. And while

US taxpayers would suffer under a staggering debt burden as a result, Exxon would reap major new profits as the Euro surged in value; further proof that corporations, not nations, rule the world.” ibid

Russia running on oil production treadmill (peak) trying to burn as fast as possible and still not turning profit

Can we trust quoted reserves?  “We adjust reserves based on anticipated demand”

US plans to takeover Saudi oilfields;

King Fahd to die any day, high probability of civil war between rival princes;

Saudi Arabia has 25 % of the world’s oil

Al Queda = CIA asset;

CIA = Wall street (international banking interests)

Golden Triangle in Persian Gulf (remaining oil fields)

Saudi Arabia is now debter nation (broke; borrowing money)

US troop deployment has surrounded Saudi Arabia

Iraqi oil is oil in the bank

(may take years and trillions of dollars to repair oil infrastructure

and produce significant boost in production)

Report suggests Saudi Arabia already peaked in 2000 !!!!

If so then world oil production has already peaked as well (Mathew Simmons)

Peak Oil = end of economic growth

Current economic model demands infinite growth (fractional reserve banking)

National powers are fighting over scraps

(largest fields have been found and are now very old,

newer fields will provide little extra production)

Future reserves

West Africa: 24 billion barrels;

Venezuela: 74 billion barrels (more likely 43 according to Colin Campell);

Colombia: 3.7 or more billion barrels;

Saudi Arabia: 192 billion;

China: 29 billion;

US-48: 21 billion;

Time for oil transport to US

6 weeks from Persian Gulf;

2 weeks from West Africa;

4 days from Venezuela;

South America

Plan Colombia (oil exploration via use of pesticides to clear rainforests, and villages);

Bolivian President resigned (kicked out) for selling out to US oil interests on pipeline through Chile

1900 new natural gas generating plants are planned to be built by US energy policy, but they are not going to be built because there’s not enough natural gas to run the plants.

“To meet electricity needs, utilities in 2000-2001 ordered 180,000 megawatts of gas-fired power plants to be installed by 2005.  This strategy seemed perfectly logical to the utilities managers since burning gas is currently the cheapest and cleanest way to convert fossil fuel into electricity. But apparently no one in the industry dad bothered to inquire whether there will be enough gas available to fire all of those new generators over their useful lifetime.  Many exploration geologists are doubtful.  By mid-2002, plans of those new gas-fired plants were being cancelled or delayed.”

               The Party’s Over p. 128

“There were 16,000 new gas wells drilled, up nearly 60 percent from 10,400 drilled in 1999. But output only rose about 2 percent over the same period, according to estimates from the Energy Dept.  The industry is on pace to add 24,000 wells by the end of the year, with only a marginal uptick expected in production.”

              The Party’s Over p. 126

 US natural gas supply was set to tank this winter, but the crisis has been likely stalled, thanks to mild summer;

Weather Control Acts (temperature suppression);

Heat waves in other parts of the world ???

Japan and China spar over planned Russian pipeline from Siberia (necessary economic lifeline);

Korean peninsula in the middle

China is the end game for US

“Within 20 years we will be importing 70% of our oil.  So will China. About 60% of all recoverable oil is in the Middle East.” - MCR

Hydrogen is BS (absolute joke) !!!

“The crux, however, is this: The process of hydrogen production always uses more energy than the resulting hydrogen will yield. Hydrogen is thus not an energy source, but an energy carrier.” 

              The Party’s Over p.146

It takes more that 3,000 gallons of gaseous hydrogen to equal 1 gallon of gasoline !!!

*EROEI* net energy ratio

(energy returned on energy invested)

Coal: 9.0;

Hydropower: 11.2;

Nuclear: 4.0;

Solar: 1.7 – 10;

Geothermal: 4.0;

Ethanol (sugarcane/corn): 0.8 – 1.7;

Methanol (wood): 2.6;

Oil and gas:     1940’s    Discoveries > 100.0;

                        1970’s Production 23.0, discoveries 8.0

Consumption energy: 1 kg nitrogen = 1.4 – 1.8 liters of diesel;

(natural gas used to produce ammonia which is used to produce nitrogen fertilizers)

20 calories of hydrocarbon energy expended for every 1 calorie of food energy produced (current US food system)

American individual’s daily intake of food will require 111 hours of physical labor without hydrocarbons

“If we were to add together the power of all of the fuel-fed machines that we rely on to light and heat our homes, transport us, and otherwise keep us in the style to which we have become accustomed, and then compare that total with the amount of power that can be generated by the human body, we would find that each of us Americans has the equivalent of over 50 “energy slaves” working for us 24 hours each day.”

               The Party’s Over p 31

US and Canada to stop feeding the World

4 – 4 ½ people must die

As many as 11 top world microbiologists died unexpectedly immediately after 911;

All have connections to Bio-weapons programs (gene-specific weapons);

11 more have died this year alone;

MEHPA (model emergency health powers act) makes it a felony to refuse a government vaccination if

emergency is declared.  Vaccine companies are immune from prosecution (homeland security)

Civil liberties are toast (patriot)

30% drop in stock values since 911

Draft to be reinstated

Relocalization is the opposite of Globalization

Americans increasingly realizing they are being forced to play the role of the pig)


Q.  In your most recent article, ‘Beyond Bush II’ you assert that Bush and the neoncons have fallen from favor in the eye’s of  the global powers that be, and will likely not be re-elected in 2004

Peak Oil: Charts and Links

911 False Flag