Is America Running Out of Gas?
October 29, 2003
evening of in-depth information from leading experts on the geopolitical
and economic impacts of
How will North America deal with looming natural gas shortages?
What happened to “cheap” Iraqi oil? Have financial elites turned against the Bush administration?
Are more resource wars being planned?
Mike Ruppert (investigative journalist, www.fromthewilderness.com)
Richar Heinberg (author of the The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies)
Julian Darley (journalist, co-founder of Post Carbon Institute, expert on the emerging North American natural gas crisis)
Sponsored by Post Carbon Institute
“The Party’s Over” book
Universal Ecological Dilema
Expand area of resource expansion (takeover, scope enlargement);
New types of energy/fuel/food (tool use, specialization, drawdown); or Die Off !!!
US Production Peak 1970
CIA documents show extensive foreknowledge of Russian peak of oil production;
Peak oil used as weapon to destabilize
Afgan War; Saudi flood of cheap Oil;
The importance of dollar hegemony;
$5-600 Billion /yr trade deficit;
Plummeting value of Dollar may lead to economic meltdown;
(very likely to precipitate global meltdown; hundreds of trillions of
dollars within derivatives trading bubble could pop at any time)
World Discovery of Oil peaked in 1960’s
Renewable resources account for 7% of US consumption;
2% of that 7% supplied by solar and wind
World Oil Production Peak in 5 – 10 years
North America: 1983
South & Central America: 2006
Former Soviet Union: 1987
Middle East: 2009
Africa – 2006Asia Pacific - 2004
WORLD PEAK – 2006
The Party’s Over p 103 - 4
Full blown hydrogen energy regime only by 2020 – 2030
Supply side solutions are only temporary
Demand side solutions are only effective way to amelieorate crisis: use less
Post Petroleum Carrying Capacity of Earth 1.5 – 1.7 billion people
Starvation, Disease, WarfareIt’s time for humans to prove that we’re an intelligent lifeform.
“High Noon for Natural Gas” book
Global natural gas peak in 10 – 15 years
“The typical natural gas well production profile rises from zero, plateaus for some time, and then drops off sharply.
However, in aggregate, combining all the natural gas wells in a country or large geographic region, extraction does
follow a modified Hubbert curve, with the right-hand side of the curve being somewhat steeper than that for crude.”
The Party’s Over p. 129
Blackouts already occurring globally in many countries
US consumes about 50 – 60 billion cubic feet day!! About 22 tcf per year;
World gas reserves estimated between 300 to 1,400 tcf (trillion cubic feet);
Gas provides ¼ of
Correlation of discovery and extraction curves (extraction right shifted)
Discovery peak in 1950; Extraction peak in 1970;
Presently set to decline precipitously
US/California energy strategy “Let the drill bit rip”
Main post natural gas and oil alternatives are coal and nuclear;
Each present host of environmental problems, and cannot be used for food or plastics.
Michael C. Ruppert
“The uh, I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating. But unfortunately the world has no Plan B if I'm right. The facts are too serious to ignore. Sadly the pessimist-optimist debate started too late. The Club of Rome humanists were right to raise the 'Limits to Growth' issues in the late 1960's. When they raised these issues they were actually talking about a time frame of 2050 to 2070. Then time was on the side of preparing Plan B. They like Dr. Hubbert got to be seen as Chicken Little or the Boy Who Cried Wolf... “
– Investment Banker Matthew Simmons
[Matthew Simmons has been a
key advisor to the Bush Administration, Vice President Cheney's 2001
Energy Task Force and the Council on Foreign Relations. An energy
investment banker, Simmons is the CEO of Simmons and Co. International,
handling an investment portfolio of approximately $56 billion. He
has served previously on the faculty of Harvard Business School.
Among Peak Oil researchers he is known for two seemingly contradictory
things: being a staunch supporter of George W. Bush and his policies
and probably the only outspoken insider to talk openly about Peak
Oil. - MCR]
The first 5 years after 911 to determine next 500 years;
US Gov had advanced and complete knowledge of attacks of 9/11 and allowed it to happen!!
Airforce stand down
Russian document concerning envoy which relayed specific intelligence warnings to CIA pre 9/11 !!!
Documented penetration of Al Qeida by many national intelligence agencies
Over 1 ½ hour delay in Airforce response !!!
Flight 93 was shot down. One engine found over a mile away from crash !!!
A number of major intelligence
agencies knew advanced details of impending attacks
and proceeded to warn the
WALL STREET = CIA
Dave Frasca ‘Radical Fundamentalist Unit’
Frasca thwarted just about every attempt of FBI agents to investigate Saudi/Bin laden activity in US;
Receives post 911 promotion
“The Grand Chessboard” Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1997
Map of where the next world conflict will be: Afganistan, Central Asia, and Middle East.
Several quotes stress the need to convince the public that there exists a widely perceived direct external threat on the order of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (“imperial mobilization of the masses”) in order to gain enough support to go ahead with planned escalation of US military presence/activity abroad. (Z. Big is ex-national security advisor to Carter, co-founder of Trilateral Commision with Rockefeller, and architect of the Afgan trap, i.e. the founder of Islamic fundamentalist movement))
“The evidence of Peak Oil is 911.” MCR
“20 out of 25 holes sunk in the Caspian Sea have resulted in dry holes.” Mathew Simmons
“In the early nineties the Caspian seemed to be the next Middle East. In 2001 we had 20 out of 25 dry holes that dampened the enthusiasm for the Caspian significantly. In 2001 Kashagan was finally discovered, deemed to be the
greatest field in the decade. In 2002 BP and Stat Oil quietly sold their 14% of Kashagan for 800 million dollars. In 2003 British Gas put their 17% on the block for 1.2 billion dollars. Which raises, in my opinion, the question, what do these original parties know about the world's greatest field or do they merely want to spread the wealth? I think what this all means is that non-OPEC oil, particularly outside the Soviet Union, is either peaking as we speak, or has already peaked.” Mathew Simmons, at the second international conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 5/27/03
Caspian estimate reserves expectations have dropped from 250 – 300 billion barrels in the 95-6’s to 100 around 2001, and now have dropped to around 40 billion barrels
World presently consumes 1 billion barrels in 11 ½ days !!!
Oil companies are downsizing and merging;
More evidence for Peak Oil
bought Texaco. Exxon bought Mobil. TotalFinaElf bought
Arco. Now, one of the largest oil buyouts in history has been announced in
BP invested 67 billion dollars
Exxon wins major bid to buy 40% of Russian largest oil company YukosSibneft; Mikhail Khodorkovsky, President of YukosSibneft is arrested by Putin; Roughly 40% of shares in YukosSibneft are seized by Russian authorities;
Following resignation of Khodorkovsky, YukosSibneft appoints a new American-dominated management team ????
announcement in Reuters on October 8th that
US taxpayers would suffer under a staggering debt burden as a result, Exxon would reap major new profits as the Euro surged in value; further proof that corporations, not nations, rule the world.” ibid
Can we trust quoted reserves? “We adjust reserves based on anticipated demand”
US plans to takeover Saudi oilfields;
King Fahd to die any day, high probability of civil war between rival princes;
Al Queda = CIA asset;
CIA = Wall street (international banking interests)
Golden Triangle in Persian Gulf (remaining oil fields)
Iraqi oil is oil in the bank
(may take years and trillions of dollars to repair oil infrastructure
and produce significant boost in production)
If so then world oil production has already peaked as well (Mathew Simmons)
Peak Oil = end of economic growth
Current economic model demands infinite growth (fractional reserve banking)
National powers are fighting over scraps
(largest fields have been found and are now very old,
newer fields will provide little extra production)
West Africa: 24 billion barrels;
US-48: 21 billion;
Time for oil transport to US
6 weeks from Persian Gulf;
2 weeks from West Africa;
4 days from
Bolivian President resigned (kicked
out) for selling out to US oil interests on pipeline through
1900 new natural gas generating plants are planned to be built by US energy policy, but they are not going to be built because there’s not enough natural gas to run the plants.
“To meet electricity needs, utilities in 2000-2001 ordered 180,000 megawatts of gas-fired power plants to be installed by 2005. This strategy seemed perfectly logical to the utilities managers since burning gas is currently the cheapest and cleanest way to convert fossil fuel into electricity. But apparently no one in the industry dad bothered to inquire whether there will be enough gas available to fire all of those new generators over their useful lifetime. Many exploration geologists are doubtful. By mid-2002, plans of those new gas-fired plants were being cancelled or delayed.”
The Party’s Over p. 128
“There were 16,000 new gas wells drilled, up nearly 60 percent from 10,400 drilled in 1999. But output only rose about 2 percent over the same period, according to estimates from the Energy Dept. The industry is on pace to add 24,000 wells by the end of the year, with only a marginal uptick expected in production.”
The Party’s Over p. 126
Weather Control Acts (temperature suppression);
Heat waves in other parts of the world ???
Korean peninsula in the middle
20 years we will be importing 70% of our oil. So will
Hydrogen is BS (absolute joke) !!!
“The crux, however, is this: The process of hydrogen production always uses more energy than the resulting hydrogen will yield. Hydrogen is thus not an energy source, but an energy carrier.”
The Party’s Over p.146
It takes more that 3,000 gallons of gaseous hydrogen to equal 1 gallon of gasoline !!!
*EROEI* net energy ratio
(energy returned on energy invested)
Solar: 1.7 – 10;
Ethanol (sugarcane/corn): 0.8 – 1.7;
Methanol (wood): 2.6;
Oil and gas: 1940’s Discoveries > 100.0;
1970’s Production 23.0, discoveries 8.0
Consumption energy: 1 kg nitrogen = 1.4 – 1.8 liters of diesel;
(natural gas used to produce ammonia which is used to produce nitrogen fertilizers)
20 calories of hydrocarbon energy
expended for every 1 calorie of food energy produced (current
American individual’s daily intake of food will require 111 hours of physical labor without hydrocarbons
“If we were to add together the power of all of the fuel-fed machines that we rely on to light and heat our homes, transport us, and otherwise keep us in the style to which we have become accustomed, and then compare that total with the amount of power that can be generated by the human body, we would find that each of us Americans has the equivalent of over 50 “energy slaves” working for us 24 hours each day.”
The Party’s Over p 31
4 – 4 ½ people must die
As many as 11 top world microbiologists died unexpectedly immediately after 911;
All have connections to Bio-weapons programs (gene-specific weapons);
11 more have died this year alone;
MEHPA (model emergency health powers act) makes it a felony to refuse a government vaccination if
emergency is declared. Vaccine companies are immune from prosecution (homeland security)
Civil liberties are toast (patriot)
30% drop in stock values since 911
Draft to be reinstated
Relocalization is the opposite of Globalization
Americans increasingly realizing they are being forced to play the role of the pig)
Q. In your most recent article, ‘Beyond Bush II’ you assert that Bush and the neoncons have fallen from favor in the eye’s of the global powers that be, and will likely not be re-elected in 2004